Britain and US launch airstrikes against Houthis

The US and the UK have launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen whose continued attacks are disrupting trade in the Red Sea. Rishi Sunak convened his cabinet on Thursday night to discuss what action would be taken. Strikes were reported in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, and the Houthi stronghold port of Hudaydah. Downing Street said that the strikes were carried out by the Royal Air Force on military facilities.

The UK’s National Security Council met on Thursday, and an emergency meeting of Cobra was convened. The Leader of the Opposition and the Speaker of the House of Commons were briefed. It’s understood that Sunak will not recall parliament on Friday to discuss the intervention. On Thursday the Liberal Democrats called on the Prime Minister to hold a vote if strikes were to take place before parliament’s return on Monday.

Military action is not a surprise. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps on Wednesday told the Houthis to ‘watch this space’, and the Wall Street Journal reported that the Houthis were anticipating an attack. The airstrikes began shortly before midnight GMT on Thursday. Non-operational help was given by the Netherlands, Canada and Bahrain.

Between 12 and 15 per cent of global trade moves through the Red Sea. The Houthi rebels, based in Yemen and aligned with Iran, have been disrupting that trade for two months by firing cheap drones at ships purportedly linked to Israel (many have not been). British and American warships have been using much more expensive missiles to shoot down these drones. As a consequence, 20 per cent of the world’s container ships are avoiding the Red Sea and are going around the south of Africa instead. The number of companies using the Suez route is down 90 per cent on this time last year.

The Houthis were warned. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that ‘if this continues… there will be consequences’. The Houthi response was to launch an unmanned surface vessel into the Red Sea that was packed with explosives. 

The concern in the West is that disruption in trade will cause inflation to rise. A drought in the Panama canal – another crucial passage – is compounding those worries. Despite the Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey saying that the Red Sea crisis had not been as inflationary as feared, US inflation was this morning revealed to have been 3.4 per cent annually in December, up from 3.1 per cent the month before. The Houthi attacks are unlikely to be the cause of the increase, but if oil tankers start struggling to get through the Suez canal, then inflation will be driven upwards by higher energy prices.

Grant Shapps has seemed more concerned with Iran than with inflation. The Defence Secretary has said: ‘Be in no doubt at all, Iran is guiding what is happening there in the Red Sea.’ No. 10 said ‘the United Kingdom will always stand up for freedom of navigation and the free flow of trade’.

British aircraft such as Typhoons, based in Cyprus, were likely used. Britain’s warships HMS Diamond, HMS Lancaster and HMS Richmond are in or near the region, but have limited range (the Telegraph reported last week that the Royal Navy has so few sailors that it is having to decommission warships). However, Britain has greater capacity in the Middle East than it did a decade ago, in part due to David Cameron’s decision as prime minister to reopen British bases ‘east of Suez’, such as in Oman and Bahrain.

London and Washington will hope that limited strikes will be enough to unsettle the Houthis without provoking escalation. As Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden prepare for elections, they will want their voters to feel well off and safe. Higher inflation and an emboldened Iran: what hay their enemies could make with that.