Did GDP fall in July because of the wet weather? That’s the argument being made this morning, as the Office for National Statistics reveals that the economy contracted by 0.5 per cent in July, after having grown 0.5 per cent in (warm and sunny) June. Services output, production output and construction sectors all fell, by 0.5 per cent, 0.7 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively, as the bad weather took its toll.
It stands to reason that weather did play a factor. Monthly GDP figures are sensitive to these kinds of effects, which also include disruptions like bank holidays or strikes. The impact of frequent industrial action this year has repeatedly shown up in the data, and July was no exception: the fall in services is largely attributed to the 3.4 per cent contraction in the human health activities industry, which was hit by NHS junior doctors, senior doctors and radiologists going on strike.
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