Britain and the EU probably will reach a trade deal. Here’s why

Most diplomats in Brussels will tell you that Theresa May has just embarked upon a fool’s errand, that Britain might wish for a free-trade deal with the European Union but will have to learn that it can’t cherry-pick. Anyway, they say, nothing of any value can be agreed in two years. This received wisdom can be heard, under various iterations, in most capitals in Europe — and it’s natural that the EU will be sore, perhaps a little defensive. But there is a free-trade deal to be struck.

First, a declaration: I didn’t want Britain to leave the EU. I’m a Swede running a free-trade thinktank in Brussels and can tell you that the UK’s absence will be sorely felt by all of its allies. A great many governments will feel the same, but to deny Britain a free-trade agreement would be an extraordinary act of self-harm, for all sides. To use the tariffs and rules of the World Trade Organisation would mean greater barriers and slower trade.