Jonathan Jones

Briefing: Obama v Romney, three months out

It’s coming up fast: there are now just three months to go to Election Day in the United States. And right now, Barack Obama’s looking a good bet — although certainly not a safe one — for re-election. The forecasting model designed by the New York Times’s Nate Silver — which accounts for both polls and economic data — currently puts Obama’s chances of victory at 72.4 per cent, his strongest position so far.

Interestingly, though, Obama’s lead in the polls is not all that big. Silver’s model, which includes national and state-level polls and takes into account the house effects of each pollster as well as the difference between polls of ‘registered voters’ and those of ‘likely voters’, puts Obama’s lead at about 1.5 percentage points nationally. And that lead has actually narrowed recently, from almost 3 points two weeks ago.

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