Brexit party voters will decide Boris Johnson’s fate

The fate of Boris Johnson’s premiership will be determined by Nigel Farage and the Brexit party. Even if a Brexit deal can be agreed, another extension to the deadline of 31 October still seems possible. If the can is kicked down the road, the question of how Farage’s voters will react is key.

Without the support of Brexit party voters, Boris Johnson could wake after the next election to find himself and his party still trapped in a hung parliament. But if he wins over half of Farage’s supporters, while the Remain camp is divided between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, then he could land nearly 350 seats and a comfortable majority. Win over three-quarters and Johnson enters landslide territory.

Such calculations depend heavily on how Brexit party voters will react to a further Brexit extension – or, indeed, the nature of any deal agreed between the EU and Britain. There are two schools of thought.