Will the recovery be shaped like a V or a U, some other letter or perhaps the Nike swoosh? This is a much-discussed question among economists right now — but it is not the most important question. We’re familiar with the idea of an up-and-down financial crisis where things return to their starting point: we had roller-coasters in the mid-1980s. Even after the global financial crash of 2008-09, financiers still kept their place as masters of the universe. Global supply chains were repaired and the old power structures remained in position. This time might be very different.
Old fixes are being applied to a new crisis. Central banks, for example, have less scope to cut interest rates than they did ten years ago. And there is little point in stimulating demand when you lock down the economy. This is what makes the Covid-19 lockdown unique: the extent to which it hits both consumption and production.
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