Braverman’s Today interview points to trouble ahead for Sunak

Where does the Tory party sit after Robert Jenrick’s resignation over the Prime Minister’s Rwanda policy? Jenrick’s decision to quit yesterday meant Rishi Sunak’s attempts to sell his Rwanda plan fell into disarray within an hour of the policy being revealed. No further resignations have followed yet, but the bigger problem for Sunak is what does the right of the party do now: will they refuse to support his Rwanda Bill? And if Sunak fails to change course, will this group of MPs decide they have no confidence in the Prime Minister?

Suella Braverman gave a hint of the next steps this group are planning when she appeared on Radio 4’s Today programme this morning. Downing Street declined to put forward a minister for the BBC’s flagship current affairs programme so the former home secretary took the 8.10 a.m. slot. Braverman began the interview by denying her party has a ‘death wish’ following heated talk of no-confidence letters and a potential leadership challenge. Instead, she said that her interventions were about policy rather than her own career prospects.

Braverman said her party is in a ‘very perilous’ position unless it can stop the boats. She argued that the ‘sorry truth’ is that Sunak’s Rwanda Bill will not do this. When Nick Robinson put to her that Sunak had said the Rwandan government would not accept her preferred plan as it would break international law, Braverman said she did not accept this. When pressed on whether this meant Braverman was accusing Sunak of lying about the Rwandan government’s position, the former home secretary would only say there was ‘intellectual incoherence’ in the position as the current Bill already disapplies some elements of the Human Rights Act and the ECHR. Therefore if illegality is the issue, Sunak’s approach isn’t perfect either.

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However, the problem with Braverman’s argument is that the Rwandan government appears to back the Sunak proposal and thinks her preferred plan – which would include ‘notwithstanding clauses’ – is a step too far. Braverman seemed to be arguing the Bill won’t work even with Rwanda’s support so there is no point proceeding.

But it does beg the question of how this group’s own alternative plan would work. They either need to claim that Sunak is misleading them over the Rwandan government position or find an alternative country for the scheme. Notably, Lord Sumption suggested on Wednesday night that Sunak’s legislation will work – but it does risk breaching international law. Given Sumption has argued in support of leaving the ECHR, his judgment is likely to be taken seriously by the Tory right.

As for Braverman’s plan if Sunak does not change course, she insisted that she hopes Sunak will lead the party into the next election – despite accusing him of being ‘weak’ and ‘lacking in leadership qualities’ in her letter when she was sacked. If Sunak does not change course, Braverman left enough space in her answers to declare later down the line that she does not back Sunak staying on as prime minister.

But the more immediate issue is what this group will do when the Bill comes to a vote as early as next week. Labour has said they will oppose the Bill. If these Tory MPs team up with Labour to block it, Sunak will be out of options and his authority will be shot.