Bouncing along

The Real Clear Politics polling average now has McCain ahead by 2.9 percent, the largest lead he has ever had by this measure and the first time he has been ahead in it since April. Now, this number obviously needs to be taken with a pinch of salt: McCain is currently enjoying both his convention and his VP bounce. But if anyone had offered the McCain team the chance to enter the post-convention sprint level, or even slightly ahead, a few months ago they would have bitten your hand off. Yet the reasons they’d have bitten your hand off—a flagging economy, an unpopular incumbent Republican president, and the fundamental problems of the Republican brand—are why this race is far from over.

A McCain-Palin victory would still count as a huge upset. But heading into the final 50-odd day sprint it is still very much a possibility. That is going to make some Democrats very nervous and going to encourage recalcitrant Republicans to rally around the party’s unlikely standard-bearers.