Boris will regret a no-deal Brexit

Much has been said about the prospect of no deal over the past few days – the economics, arguments over sovereignty, the views of Conservative MPs, possible long-term gain, and the views of the voters. All will be important to the government’s final decision. Looking only at the voters, the established wisdom seems to be that a no deal course gives Boris his moment of facing down the EU, and that the former ‘Red Wall’ would welcome such a move. This, I think, is an incorrect assumption.

Twelve months ago, no deal may well have been welcomed by a sizeable proportion of voters. Brexit was the only show in town. The Conservatives held a towering thirty-point lead on the issue over Jeremy Corbyn. As frustration about the Brexit process grew and grew, anything to break the logjam was looking attractive. Swathes of the press were likely to be on board.