Boris should keep calm and ignore the polls

When those words and phrases of the year lists come out there is bound to be a place in them for ‘the new normal’. It is a phrase that invites us to expect that short-term shifts in how things are will become new long-term equilibriums. A socially-distanced lifestyle; governments being able to borrow vast sums very cheaply; face masks on public transport: these are just a few of the things that have in 2020 been labelled ‘the new normal’. For Brits who craves some stability in turbulent times it can be a comforting concept.

For many Conservative politicians, ‘the new normal’ seems to have begun a year or so ago – when Boris Johnson became Prime Minister and turned Theresa May’s horrific opinion poll ratings into something much more appetising.

Since then the Conservative poll score has typically been well into the forties, with Labour at least ten points behind. Crucially, that pattern was borne out in December’s general election when 107 new Conservative MPs were elected – not just as victors in ‘Red Wall’ seats lost by Labour, but also as replacements for dozens of anti-Brexit Tory incumbents who chose to step down or were kicked out.