Boris can’t just say no to Nicola

By May, the acute phase of the Covid crisis should be over. But the elections scheduled for that month threaten to throw the government into a fresh crisis.

Nicola Sturgeon looks set to lead the Scottish National Party to a majority in the Holyrood elections. Given that the SNP manifesto will commit the party to a second independence referendum, she will claim this victory as a mandate for holding one. But no legal referendum can take place without Westminster’s consent, which will be refused.

But, as I argue in the Times today, the danger is that a two-letter answer with no further explanation could be seen as typical Tory, or English, arrogance. ‘If Nicola gets a majority at the election, Boris can’t just say no. He has to say “no, because” and that reason has to be deep’, one influential Scottish Tory tells me.