James Forsyth James Forsyth

Boris’s Brexit gamble faces its next challenge

This country will end the Brexit transition period with a zero tariff, zero quota deal with the EU. Four and a half years after the Brexit vote, the issue that has so convulsed British politics is settled.

We are still awaiting the text of the deal. But from what both sides have said it is clear that this is a pretty full fat Brexit: Britain leaves the single market and the customs union and there’ll be no dynamic alignment with EU rules in the future.

On the three key tests of money, borders and laws – it looks like the deal passes

The two sides will be able to put tariffs on each other if they feel that they have raised their standards and the others refusal to follow suit puts them at a trading disadvantage. But crucially this power is reciprocal, subject to independent – not ECJ – arbitration and has to be proportionate: the EU couldn’t slap tariffs on a host of British goods over some very minor difference.

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