Boris looks doomed, but can he escape the inevitable?

Is Boris Johnson’s government about to fall apart? Twice since World War Two, Tory governments have broken up after a prolonged period of rule. They have died not because of a single crisis, but slowly expired due to sheer exhaustion, disunity, and lack of purpose or ideas. Now Boris’s regime, after another lengthy Tory period in power, looks as though it may be heading towards a similar exit. But can it avoid its fate?

The parallels between today’s events and those of 1963 and 1992-7 are inescapable. In all three cases we have a tired team of Tories bereft of ideas simply running out of steam. In all three we have a derided Prime Minister becoming the butt of media jibes and popular dislike. In all three we have a slew of petty scandals, trivial in themselves but collectively fatal.

The bad news for Boris is that even if he can avoid – or survive – a vote of confidence among Tory MPs, he has a fight on his hands to convince Brits that he deserves to hold on to the keys of No.