Boris Johnson’s high-risk Brexit strategy

There’s a reason why No. 10 is always so inclined to ratchet up the tension in any given scenario. Downing Street’s staff, and particularly the Vote Leave alumni, believe that one of their strengths is that in high-pressure situations, they stay calm while others panic. This confidence is not totally misplaced. Last autumn, Boris Johnson and his aides kept their nerve better than any other group in British politics — the result was a decisive parliamentary majority. Last October, they suggested Brexit talks were over and no deal was inevitable. They then briefed out unprecedented levels of detail from a Boris Johnson-Angela Merkel phone call before eventually doing a deal.

Critics claim that the withdrawal agreement they struck was always available, but this misses something important. The tactics ensured that the arrangements in Northern Ireland can only be renewed with the consent of Stormont, which made the agreement far more acceptable in democratic terms. In Westminster, they kept pushing for a general election until the opposition parties cracked and gave it to them. Others would have reconsidered after they failed in their first three attempts. But they simply pressed on, ramping up the rhetoric each time.

Now No. 10 is raising the stakes again. Last Thursday, the European Council’s conclusions said that all the concessions to get a deal would need to come from the UK and refused to commit to intensifying the negotiations. This statement almost seemed designed to rub Britain’s nose in it. No. 10 responded saying the trade talks were over unless the EU changed its position. The Council conclusions were particularly ill-timed as they coincided with Johnson being (in the words of one of those who knows him well) ‘emotionally attracted to Australia again’. Australia is Downing Street’s term for trading with the EU largely on WTO terms.