Boris Johnson won’t blow it like Theresa May

So what is going to happen? There appear to be grounds for quiet confidence about the result. Almost all the polls are showing the same outcome: a twelve-point Tory lead. The data suggests that most voters have made up their minds about Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson and that is not good news for Corbyn.

Equally, there is a lot of evidence from previous elections that the campaign itself has little effect on polling day. That was not the case in 1992, while 2010 and 2015 require more analysis.

But I believe that it was true in 1979, 1983, 1987, 1997, 2001 and 2005. Yet all those examples are inevitably overshadowed by 2017, probably the most transformative election campaign in the whole of political history and – for Tories – nearly as traumatic as 1945.   

That is why almost all Tories are nervous today. Two-and-a-half weeks really is a long time in politics, leaving plenty of scope for gaffes and 2017 casts a long shadow. Everyone remembers what happened back then.