Boris Johnson’s premiership is in danger of being undermined by a single loose remark. No, not one involving burqas, Liverpool, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, Darius Guppy and all the other many and varied ways he has offended people over the years. The remark which risks doing the real damage is his off-the-cuff comment in a hustings on 26 June when he claimed that the chances of a no-deal Brexit are ‘a million to one’. Really? That is not quite how the bookies see it – Betfair and Paddy Power are this morning offering 17/10 on a no-deal departure on 31 October, while Betfred is giving 6/4. Given that bookies live or die according to their ability to assess the chances of these sort of events I suggest that they are closer to reality than the Prime Minister.
I still think there is a good chance that over the next three months the EU will soften, Boris will start talking to other EU leaders and some sort of deal will be struck, even if it’s only temporary, ensuring that free trade in goods can continue while a more permanent arrangement is drawn up.
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