There is arguably the most important conflict raging in the Tory party since Churchill replaced Chamberlain as PM in 1940. Although we are living through 1940 in reverse, because Johnson is already the self-defined “war-time” PM, the wannabe Churchill, when some of his colleagues want something and perhaps someone else.
Forget the battle between government and opposition, what matters most right now is the fight between Boris Johnson and his consigliere Dominic Cummings on one hand against a minority of senior Conservative MPs led by Philip Hammond, David Gauke and Greg Clark – the so-called Gaukeward Squad – over whether a no-deal Brexit is preferable to a Brexit delay.
At stake is pretty much everything from whether Johnson survives as PM, to whether the UK ever leaves the EU. Here are the battle lines.
The Gaukeward Squad is implacably and irreconcilably detached from Johnson and Cummings, on two matters of judgement:
First, they regard a no-deal Brexit as the great looming catastrophe for country and party – where Johnson and Cummings see the risks to country as exaggerated, and fear their party would be annihilated if there were a further postponement of Brexit.
Second, Hammond and co do not believe there are any realistic circumstances in which the EU would agree to Johnson’s request to dump the backstop – the insurance plan to keep the border on the island of Ireland open.
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