Boris Johnson’s Brexit dilemma

The penny seems to have belatedly dropped for Boris Johnson. He can have a no-trade-deal relationship with the European Union – what he calls an Australian-style relationship – or he can have Northern Ireland as a seamless member of the UK’s internal market. But under the EU Withdrawal Agreement that he signed, he cannot have both. 

If we trade with the EU under WTO terms there will be highly significant tariffs levied on UK-EU trade alongside highly significant fiscal and regulatory differences between the UK and EU. And the default position in the Northern Ireland Protocol is that – without agreement to the contrary between the UK and EU – all goods flowing from GB to NI are ‘at risk’ of flowing across the NI border into the EU. Therefore they would all be subject to tariffs at the border between GB and NI. 

Goods flowing from GB to Northern Ireland would be subject to verification that they are not designated as EU goods intended exclusively for the NI market.