Ever since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister his opponents — both inside and outside his party — have been convinced that his ‘do or die’ pledge to have the UK out of the EU by 31 October would be his greatest vulnerability. ‘We’ll make him miss this deadline,’ they thought, ‘and his credibility will be shot.’ Brexit party voters would write him off as another blusterer from a Tory party unable to deliver. He seemed to think so too, repeatedly saying that ‘extension means extinction’.
His enemies have now succeeded; the defeat of the government’s Brexit timetable in Tuesday night’s vote means it is near impossible for him to meet that pledge. He might be hoping for a miracle (these can happen, as his deal showed) but parliament has won. It has forced his government to ask for an extension from the EU, and Donald Tusk says he is encouraging EU leaders to grant one.
Yet far from being politically dead, Boris Johnson finds himself in a stronger position than he was on the day he became Prime Minister. The Brexit deal he has struck with the EU has changed everything. It not only garnered the support of a majority of MPs at its second reading, but more importantly it is a deal that Leavers broadly welcome. Every Tory Brexiteer in the Commons voted for it, every cabinet minister is fully signed up to it; and initial polling suggests that the general public back it too — more say that they support the deal than oppose it. Suddenly the Tories are occupying the common ground of British politics.
This means that despite Johnson’s parliamentary impotence, he is in a strong position for whatever comes next. ‘Everything is now better,’ says a cabinet minister. With the Withdrawal Agreement Bill ‘in limbo’ after MPs rejected the government’s speedy timetable, No. 10
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