Put aside the surprise at the scale of the Tory gains and look at where those gains came, and consider what is now the central question of British politics: how will the Conservatives try to keep their gains at the next general election?
Don’t assume that’s in 2024. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act may well not survive this election result. This majority gives Boris Johnson the scope to engage in constitutional reform, though big SNP gains mean the biggest constitutional challenge will be keeping Scotland in the Union. I sadly think we’ll see IndyRef2 in this Parliament and I fear the outcome.
The Tories did badly in Scotland, but won in the English north and midlands. How well? At least 15 of their gains from Labour have not had a Tory MP since before 1945:
Rother Valley; Durham NW, Leigh, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Don Valley; Wakefield; West Brom E, West Brom W, Sedgefield, Bassetlaw, Wrexham, Bolsover, Stoke Ctl, Stoke N, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Blyth Valley.
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