Since Boris’s thumping general election win in December, I’ve lost count of the number of people – both Remainers and Leavers – who tell me that no deal just won’t happen. Boris needs a deal, they insist, and the EU will bend a little here and there to give the Prime Minister a ladder to climbdown. Yet I’ve always been convinced that no deal is far and away the most likely outcome of the EU negotiations in 2020. Today’s warning from the PM – in which he talks down the prospects of a deal – make me even more sure this is the case.
Why am I convinced no deal is so likely? Firstly, the EU’s position in all of this continues to be misunderstood by many in Britain. While the EU would clearly prefer to have a deal with a post-Brexit Britain, there are clear red lines they have never been willing to cross. Given that Boris has always made it clear that he intends to cross those red lines, it seems only logical that no deal is the likely end result.
So how can we explain the no-deal denialism? It appears to largely stem from the view that Boris Johnson doesn’t really believe in anything and so, when faced with a cliff-edge moment, he will cave in completely.
Britain’s best politics newsletters
You get two free articles each week when you sign up to The Spectator’s emails.
Already a subscriber? Log in
Comments
Join the debate, free for a month
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first month free.
UNLOCK ACCESS Try a month freeAlready a subscriber? Log in