The loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton has shaken the Conservative party. But governments like Thatcher’s and Cameron’s have suffered mid-term blues before and bounced back to win elections. Is there anything really that different about what is happening now that will stop Boris Johnson making a similar recovery?
In my view, the answer is yes. The situation now facing the party is different, and not simply a mid-term grumble.
The first difference is that people of both places voted the way they did not because of a general discontent with the government or its policies, but because of a focused fury with the Conservative leader. The top argument chosen in a J.L. Partners poll of Wakefield for voting Labour was ‘Boris Johnson tried to cover up partygate, and lied to the public’. The second was ‘Boris Johnson is not in touch with working-class people’.
Mention Johnson in a focus group of swing voters and one is no longer met with laughter or praise, but with disgust.
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