Boris has avoided a nightmare scenario

Boris Johnson’s decision to pull out of the Tory leadership contest averts a nightmare scenario where he had got the support of less than a third of the parliamentary party and was then returned to Downing Street by the member’s vote (though, I think the result of that ballot was becoming less and less certain). This would have been a recipe for instability. Can you really lead a party in parliament if the vast majority of the MPs wanted someone else?  

Even allies of Johnson were saying today that they hoped that he wouldn’t run. They feared that if he did he would be remembered as the man who broke the Tory party rather than as the man who delivered Brexit, won the 2019 general election with a majority and was right about Ukraine.

The question now is where do his supporters go? Some will move to Penny Mordaunt but Nadhim Zahawi, one of Johnson’s Cabinet backers, has already declared for Rishi Sunak.