Boris Johnson’s offer to the EU isn’t nothing. He, seemingly with the DUP’s blessing, is proposing that Northern Ireland follow EU regulations on not just agriculture but also manufactured goods for at least the next four years. But his insistence that the UK must leave the EU with its customs territory intact means that there will have to be customs checks on the island of Ireland and that breaches one of the EU and Dublin’s red lines.
So, what happens now? Well, I doubt that there will be a deal. I wonder even if there’ll be full-on negotiations; the two sides are just so far apart. Without an agreement, the Benn Act will kick in on the 19 October. Boris Johnson will try and get round it, but in the end the letter will be sent. At that point, the EU will offer a short extension.
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