Grotesque. Unbelievable. Bizarre. Unprecedented. Today’s Ipsos-Mori opinion poll is the most astonishing survey of Scottish political opinion in living memory. Perhaps, even, the most remarkable survey of all time.
It is, of course, a snapshot not a prediction. The actual election will not produce anything like these numbers. I don’t believe the SNP will win 52% of the Scottish vote in May. I don’t believe the Labour party will take 23% of votes. And I don’t actually believe the Conservatives will only be supported by 10% of voters.
Still, there is something happening in Scotland right now. The electorate is volatile. Just a month ago Survation reported Labour’s support (amongst decided voters) at 39% and the SNP on 35%. That still seems a more likely kind of outcome than today’s poll.
Not least because today’s numbers would notionally leave Scotland with 54 SNP MPs, four Labour members and a solitary Liberal Democrat (Alistair Carmichael).
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