Bookies turn on Boris

Betting markets are famously more reliable than pundit prognostications or political polls. Steerpike was intrigued, therefore, to note this morning that bookmakers are now saying that Boris will not be party leader by Tory conference next autumn. On the Betfair exchange overnight, the price has moved towards Boris Johnson being gone by autumn as the favourite outcome. At the same time, 2022 is now evens to be the year in which Boris is replaced in No. 10.

The more interesting market, though, is who will replace Johnson as Conservative leader. On Betfair’s Sportsbook, the favourite is Chancellor Rishi Sunak at 2/1. He’s followed by Liz Truss at 7/2 and then the perennially ambitious Michael Gove is at 6/1. Having lost out to Johnson in 2019, Jeremy Hunt is 10/1 to replace him. Health secretary Sajid Javid, meanwhile, is 14/1. Here is a selection of other possible runners:

Oliver Dowden: 14/1

Priti Patel 14./1

Tom Tugendhat 16/1

Penny Mordaunt 16/1

Ruth Davidson 25/1

Dominic Raab 25/1

James Cleverly 25/1

Jacob Rees Mogg 25/1

Betting markets on future parts leaders are actually less reliable than on election results — so Steerpike advises taking a large pinch of salt when talking to your bookie.