Sweden’s Anders Borg (Fraser’s favourite finance minister) is wrong, says Citigroup. Bondholders and deposit holders are not like wolves, as Borg has made them out to be. They’re more like sheep — and currently they’re baa-a-a-cking out of the eurozone pretty quickly.
We all know that money’s leaving the Continent — but how much and how rapidly? Citi’s credit strategist Matt King, basing his analysis on imbalances in TARGET2 (the euro area’s main payment settlement system) relative to eurozone countries’ current accounts, has come up with a few interesting observations.
— Since mid-2011, Spain has suffered private-sector outflows of €100 billion, and Italy €160 billion (or a tenth of their respective GDPs), King estimates. Both countries are likely to see further haemorrhaging of €200 billion each, and the speed of outflow is likely to quicken due to economic deterioration, ratings downgrades or a Greek exit.
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