Blair’s disdain for his colleagues could bring about his downfall

It is easy to botch reshuffles, although it is unusual to do so twice in succession, as Tony Blair has now managed. But when they change their governments, all PMs have a problem with their colleagues’ sensitivities. Once a shuffle is approaching, press speculation will rampage so that within hours half the Cabinet is feeling as secure as one of Henry VIII’s wives. To prevent that, No. 10 spokesmen usually steer the press towards the real victims.

Prime Ministers also convince themselves that this is in the departing colleagues’ interests. They decide that it is better to be given notice that one is going than to be subjected to a brutal shock. They have a point. It must be ghastly to be summoned to Downing Street and removed from office like a sacked City trader, escorted away by the security guards who have already emptied the contents of the desk drawers into a bin bag.