Blair is on death row, but he could be there for years

Here is an old paradox. A prisoner has been sentenced to death, his execution is to be carried out in not less than one week, but the authorities think it would be inhumane to make him go to bed knowing that in the morning he will be shot. Until the firing squad is ready, he must always be allowed to hope that he has at least one more day on this earth. But as the authorities meet to make the final arrangements, they realise they can’t delay the execution until Saturday, when the week will be up, because if they do then, on Friday, the prisoner will know that there’s only one day left and therefore he’ll know that he’s going to die in the morning. There again, they can’t delay until Friday either because, being an intelligent fellow, the prisoner will have worked out he can’t be shot on a Saturday, so if he’s still alive by Thursday evening, he knows he’s going to get it in the morning. By the same logic, they can’t delay it until Thursday either, and so on back through the week. So when do they execute the wretched villain?

This illustrates the bind Tony Blair is now in despite the astute political coup he pulled off with Tuesday’s speech to the Labour party conference, which had the Blairites fanning out to spread the word that when the Prime Minister said he would serve a full Parliament, he meant a very full Parliament, darling. One former MP’s wife even took me aside to tell me that after a speech like that, if Blair wanted to forget his promise and do two more Parliaments, no one could stop him. The more authoritative word is that he will be there for three more years, which is almost as long as the late Jim Callaghan’s entire tenure as prime minister.