David Cameron publicly said it was up to Ukraine to decide whether to use British weapons to strike targets on Russian territory earlier this month. But nothing has happened since then: no Storm Shadow missiles have flown over the Ukraine-Russia border. Last night, Volodymyr Zelensky explained why: the UK had not given ‘100 per cent permission’ to do so. ‘We raised this issue twice. We did not get confirmation from him [Cameron].’ In reality, Downing Street is waiting on the Americans, he said.
The calls for the US and other allies to allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with western arms have grown louder after Russia launched a second offensive in the Kharkiv region. They came from senior diplomats and the masses on Twitter, where Ukrainians launched the #LetUkraineStrikeBack campaign. At least 12 western countries have given Ukraine permission to strike. But the biggest boon for Ukraine came last night, when Joe Biden gave Ukraine the go ahead to strike Russia with some American weapons – albeit with restrictions.
The West has stopped constantly worrying about the Kremlin’s reaction
The Biden administration has said that Ukraine may only strike Russian targets near the Kharkiv region. This means that Kyiv will be able to use US-provided short-range weapons to shoot down launched Russian missiles heading toward Kharkiv, at troops massing just over the Russian border near the city, or at aircraft launching bombs toward the region. This marks a groundbreaking shift in US international politics, and is already prompting other allies to lift their bans as well.
Those in Zelensky’s inner circle describe his relationship with Biden as ‘very, very tense’, especially after the Ukrainian President criticised his US counterpart for his decision to attend a Democratic fundraiser instead of Ukraine’s peace summit in mid-June. ‘The peace summit needs Biden, as well as other leaders who look at the US response. His absence… [Vladimir] Putin will applaud this, standing,’ said Zelensky this week. Zelensky, who is often blunt and was once labelled ungrateful by former defence secretary Ben Wallace, has a point: Ukraine is fighting Russia under countless restrictions while Moscow is unhindered.
For Kyiv, permission to strike Russian military and air force bases, artillery guns, and multiple rocket launchers stationed along the border could significantly alter the course of the war. Ukrainian troops won’t have to wait for Russian missiles to cross the border – they’ll be able to shoot down the aircraft carrying them. The arrival of F-16 fighter jets will make this job easier. Denmark and the Netherlands have already allowed Ukraine to use their F-16s to strike military targets in Russia (but Belgium has banned the use of its F-16s for such strikes when they arrive in the autumn). Even Germany is shifting its stance from a strict ‘no German weapons on Russian soil’ stance to a position where, according to Olaf Scholz’s spokesman, ‘defensive action is not limited to one’s own territory, but can also be expanded to the territory of the aggressor’.
The best-case scenario for Ukraine would be receiving permission to use long-range western weapons to strike Russian military bases deep into the country. But even now Ukrainians are feeling a huge sense of relief, seeing that the West has stopped constantly worrying about the Kremlin’s reaction. The only serious threat so far has been Russia’s move to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus – a psychological ploy, since Putin could launch a nuclear strike from Russian territory if he wanted to.
Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and current deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, is the only one in the Kremlin who delights in posting nuclear threats on his Telegram channel every week. This time, he warned that Putin will respond by carving out a buffer zone to protect Russia from attacks – something Russian forces are already attempting in the Kharkiv region. Medvedev claims that if British Storm Shadow or French SCALP-EG missiles, with a range of 350 miles, can reach Belgorod from Kyiv, the ‘sanitary zone’ must encompass the whole of Ukraine. ‘In other words, there must be Russia everywhere,’ Medvedev said, adding, ‘And in Poland itself.’
More than two years of full-scale war in Ukraine have proved that appeasement does not stop Putin: it encourages him. Allies should strike a compromise with Kyiv, allowing Ukraine to target military sites in Russia’s border regions such as Belgorod, Kursk, and Rostov, at the very least. These regions are staging grounds for Russian offensive actions and missile attacks on Ukraine. Kyiv won’t target Russian schools, hospitals and kindergartens – only Moscow does that.
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