Beware a Brexiteer who feels betrayed

It is sometimes tempting to imagine that the Brexit negotiations will follow the course of a Sunday night TV drama: weeks of suspense, then everything is miraculously resolved with five minutes to go.

Last December’s agreement was a case in point. Theresa May turned up to see Jean-Claude Juncker, the Commission President, expecting to do a deal; then the Irish border hit and the whole process seemed in danger. But the Prime Minister made a pre-dawn dash to Brussels just four days later and a deal was done. This has all added to Westminster’s sense that, ultimately, everything will be alright on the night.

This means Westminster is underestimating the danger of the negotiations failing. In December, problems could be postponed. But what is agreed from now on will go into the legal text of the withdrawal agreement, making it harder to fudge things. A senior figure in the Department for Exiting the European Union calculates that there is a one-in-five chance of the talks collapsing, and Britain leaving the EU without a deal.