Belarus’s regime is nearing collapse

It’s hard to believe Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko will retain his half-affectionate, half-exasperated nickname ‘Batka’ (Dad) after his re-election yesterday in a presidential vote rigged beyond the point of farce, which led to violent street protests across the country. Despite claims he had fled the country, the ‘last dictator in Europe’ made it through the night – but his regime is now nearing its end.

Lukashenko has been more-or-less firmly ensconced in Belarus since 1994, and under his rule the country has remained a strange Soviet-capitalist hybrid. There are still streets named after Marx, the political security police are still called the KGB, and large state enterprises still dominate much of the economy, but there are pockets of thriving entrepreneurism.

His personal control of the country has been based on the classic tools of the dictator: loyal and extensive security forces, an elite with more to gain from his survival than his departure, and a population offered stability in return for docility – with no prospect of success if they resist.