Back a mudlark at Haydock

After a week of rain, the official ground conditions for tomorrow’s cards at Newmarket and Haydock both have ‘heavy’ in the description, with a little more of the wet stuff forecast too. If I have learnt only one thing from my decades as a punter, it is to bet with caution when the ground turns into a quagmire.

Yes, of course, it is best to back horses that have won or run well on ground described as ‘heavy’ but it is not as simple as that, or even those with a basic knowledge of the form book would soon be rich. When the ground is really, really soft and the mud is flying, it is often accompanied by a series of unpredictable results. 

I had hoped to put up trainer Dylan Cunha’s talented four-year-old colt Prague in today’s Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Joel Stakes (Newmarket, 3.35 p.m.). Unraced at two and three years old when trained by Aidan O’Brien, presumably after setbacks, the horse has now run four times this season.