Australia at the crossroads

 Sydney

For decades, Australia has been known as ‘the lucky country’. At the end of the world geographically, we are separated from the global troublespots by vast oceans. We have recorded 27 years of uninterrupted growth, partly because of a surge in exports of commodities to China. At the same time, our tough border protection policies boost public confidence in, as John Howard put it, ‘who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come’.

As a result, our politics have not been profoundly affected by the kind of populist forces dismantling established parties across Europe. Nor have we witnessed an anti-globalisation backlash. Not for us any Trump- or Brexit-like insurgencies. All this as we profit from the great China market and remain safe under Uncle Sam’s security umbrella. However, all good things come to an end, usually sooner than you expect; and there is a growing sense that 24 million Australians on this resource-rich continent are taking comfort from our past. Simply put, we face a major dilemma: how we reconcile our China trade relations with our US security alliance. For the past decade or so, our leaders have balanced China’s right to an enhanced regional profile with our desire for US protection. It’s a bit like riding two horses at once. When those two horses move further apart, as an assertive Beijing and an erratic America have done in the past year, that feat becomes exceedingly difficult. For decades, Canberra enthusiastically welcomed China’s rise. Much to the chagrin of Washington, we played down human rights, joined the China-run Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and leased the Darwin Port to a Chinese company. We assumed that the more Beijing integrated into what is termed the rules-based international order, the more likely it would become liberal and peaceful. We are coming slowly and painfully to realise that this is not the case.