Assad’s demise, Isis’s rise?

The Iranian-dominated Shia arc has collapsed. The keystone to the arc was Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the partnership that his father Hafiz al-Assad forged with the Iranian regime in the 1980s. 

That alliance gave Tehran for decades its only state-level Arab ally, one that shares a border with Israel.  

It was also critical in enabling supply of Hezbollah and providing forward bases and freedom of movement for Islamic Revolutionary Guard personnel. In return Assad’s Syria gained strategic depth in the form of an Islamic partner and patron.

The survival of Assad’s Syria was a point of strategic convergence between Russia and Tehran. That triangular relationship proved invaluable in 2015. It was the the IRGC-QF Commander Qasim Soleimani who tipped Russia into saving Assad. 

But Iran may no longer be the key player in the region.  With the disappearance of Assad, any hope Tehran may have had of reviving Hezbollah, battered by Israel to the point of no longer being a strategic asset, all but disappears. 

What Hezbollah now becomes within Lebanon is an open and worrying question. But what Hezbollah isn’t any longer is a credible military force at the head of an Axis of Resistance. 

Between them, Hai’at Tahrir Al Shams (HTS) and the Israel Defence Force (IDF), two deeply opposing forces, have blunted Hezbollah’s military capability and cut their supply lines.