Ashcroft marginal polls show Tory-Labour races remain tight — and Ukip is falling behind

The Tory-Labour battleground remains very close. Lord Ashcroft has returned to ten competitive marginal seats in his latest round of polling and has found swings to Labour, ranging from 0.5 per cent to four per cent. According to his latest polls, the Conservatives are set to hold onto five of these marginals: Blackpool North & Cleveleys, Gloucester, Kingswood, Pendle and Loughborough — the last represented by Education Secretary Nicky Morgan. Use the interactive chart above to see the latest polls.

In the other five marginals, Pudsey is a tie between the two parties — as it was in November last year — while Labour is set to take Harrow East, Hove, Morecambe & Lunesdale and Stockton South. The final constituency, represented by James Wharton, is one of the few Conservative seats in the North East of England so losing it will be a significant blow to the party. Wharton sponsored the EU referendum bill and has been a vigorous local campaigner throughout the last Parliament. But with a majority of 332 in a traditional Labour area, he has a very tough battle to retain the seat. Ashcroft reports there is currently a five per cent swing towards Labour, and its lead has increased by two points since last July.

While the picture is mixed for Labour and the Conservatives — both are campaigning hard and making progress —  there is one party which is definitely suffering. Ashcroft notes in his analysis that in nine of these marginals, the Ukip vote is being squeezed (similarly to the Liberal Democrats). In Stockton South for instance, the Ukip vote has dropped ten points since his last poll. From a high of 24 percent in October 2014, Ashcroft reports the Ukip vote in Blackpool North & Cleveleys is down to 15 per cent. In Hove, which is on course to be taken by Labour, Ukip has dropped six points. Although none of these seats are targets for Ukip, the party knew its vote was going to squeezed. The question is whether the kippers have disappeared to the established parties for good or if they will resurface in the key targets in time for the election.