As Labour slumps in the polls, a new and nervous faction is arising: Blairites-for-Brown

Each autumn the Labour party performs a ritualistic drama. First, trade unionists and left-wingers talk darkly about insurrection at the annual party conference. Blair must go, they say. At conference fringe meetings, such whispers become a full-blown war cry. Next Gordon Brown gives a rousing speech, laying out his rival vision of the future. There is talk of mutiny even as the Prime Minister comes on stage. But as he starts his oration, his audience is quickly spellbound. Rebels fall silent. Then applaud. Then coo. Then everyone boards the train back to London and the new parliamentary term begins.

This year the show has finally moved on. It will be set in Manchester rather than a decaying seaside resort, and the Blairite-Brownite division which provided such entertainment in conferences past is rapidly disintegrating. Among Mr Blair’s allies and enemies there is a clear consensus that this will be his last conference as leader, no matter how Churchillian his speech.