China’s imposition today of tariffs on 128 imports from the US was inevitable – and is no doubt exactly the reaction that Donald Trump wants, giving him the excuse to announce yet more tariffs in addition to those on steel and aluminium imports which he has already imposed. After all he did say, even before China announced any form of retaliation: “trade wars are good. It should easy for the US to win one”. A trade war is what he wanted, and what he has got.
But does he have any more of a strategy for his trade war than George W Bush had a plan for winning the peace in Iraq? There is an argument for saying that China will come off worse – on the basis that it exports far more to the US than travels in the other direction. Over the course of this century the US’s deficit with China has mushroomed to $375 billion.
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