Are we in for 40 days of rain?

Rain or shine

Has a wet St Swithin’s Day (15 July) ever been followed by 40 wet days or a dry one by 40 dry days?

– Since 1861, according to the Met Office there is not a single instance of the legend being literally true in England. However, the late meteorologist Philip Eden did record a near miss in 1995 when only two of the 40 days following a dry St Swithin’s Day, 15 July, were wet at his home in the Home Counties.

– In 1976 there were also just two wet days in the same period. However, in that year 15 July had seen thunderstorms over much of southern England – a rare wet day in an otherwise parched summer.

Dangerous politics

Which are the most deadly countries in which to be a political leader?

Number of assassinations of serving and former prime ministers, presidents, monarchs or other heads of state since 1900:

Afghanistan, Iran, Jordan – 5

Egypt, Portugal, Yemen – 4

Italy, Serbia, Japan, Spain, Romania, Syria, Burundi, Nigeria, Bangladesh – 3

India, US, Bulgaria, China, Mexico, Austria, Haiti, Russia, Pakistan, Lebanon, Iraq, Sri Lanka/Ceylon, Chad, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Rwanda – 2

Baby bust

There were 598,393 births and 597,992 deaths in England and Wales in the year to mid-2023, meaning that the natural growth in the population (i.e. excluding migration) was just 401. When was it last so low?

Since 1972 there have been three years in which natural population growth was negative:

Year to mid-1976 -4,900

Year to mid-1977 -12,300

Year to mid-1978 -8,300

The years of highest natural population growth in the past half-century were:

Year to mid-2011 239,129