The Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has a comment piece in today’s FT in which he defends his decision to recognise the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by drawing parallels with the West’s recognition of an independent Kosovo. But whatever the rights and wrongs on that front, it’s hard to read Russia’s defiance of the West on this as little more than an act of agression. Accordingly, then, there’s a growing sense that the jaw-jaw just isn’t working. The rhetoric has already stepped up a notch, with Medvedev claiming that “We are not afraid of anything, including the prospect of a new cold war”. And accusations have already started flying around that the Americans are trying to deliver weapons to Georgia.
It’s a precarious situation for the West. As John Redwood points out in a considered blog post, there’s a whole host of reasons why the West should avoid full-on conflict with Russia at the moment; perhaps chief among them the energy issue.
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