Are we heading for another winter lockdown?

What do you think the chances are of another national lockdown before the year is out? Are you glass half empty, glass half full, or do you question if there is really a glass at all? I think a lot of people are looking at the same Covid data right now and coming to wildly different conclusions. The pandemic has been characterised by these moments. The days and weeks pass until reality can no longer be ignored, at which point it is usually too late to prevent catastrophe, but in time to mitigate it.

For the glass is half-full folk the vaccine roll-out has been a solid success. The early decision to delay second doses and focus on getting as many people protected almost certainly saved lives in the last wave and this has put us in a good place for the next one, though the number of people with a single dose has left some temporal vulnerability.