The Autumn issue of the Fabian Review features an article by the YouGov pollster Peter Kellner on why Labour could win the next election. It’s not out until 15 September, but the Mirror’s Kevin Maguire has seen a copy and writes about it in his column today. Here – with Maguire’s embellishments – is Kellner’s reasoning:
(1) Political geography favours Gordon Brown. If the parties got the same national vote, Labour still wins 80 more seats. Cameron needs two million more votes for the same number of seats. To draw level Cameron needs a six per cent lead, a hefty 10 per cent for an overall majority.
(2) Every government from the mid-50s to mid-90s suffering mid-term blues enjoyed a significant poll recovery.
(3) This isn’t the John Major era. Labour losing 40 per cent of its votes in Crewe and Glasgow East was crushing until compared with the Cons collapsing 80 per cent in Dudley West in 1994.
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