Are the Labour leadership polls telling the whole story?

This weekend’s YouGov poll showing Ed Miliband ahead in the Labour leadership contest is the talk of Westminster today. One David Miliband backer told me that he thought it was flawed as it assumed that MPs’ second preferences would split evenly between the two brothers when David had the advantage. I was told that nearly all Andy Burnham’s parliamentary backers would put David second, that most of Balls’ would do the same and that Ed Miliband could only rely on Diane Abbott’s parliamentary backers’ second preferences. But Ed Miliband’s supporters dispute this. They believe that they are making progress everywhere.
 
There are now just two hustings to go—one at the TUC which is starting shortly and one on the BBC later in the week—but the ballot papers are already out, so we can’t know how many people have already voted. Strikingly, YouGov found that Ed Miliband was further ahead amongst