Are the Key Stage 3 drops bigger than they first appear?

So, the provisional Key Stage 3 results have been released, and much is already being made of the drop in reading standards from last year.  This drop is particularly marked among boys, whose performance in level 5 reading has fallen by 3 percent on 2007’s results.

However, if you look back further, the fall in standards is even more dramatic.  The boys who took Key Stage 3 tests this year took Key Stage 2 tests in 2005.  Back then, 82 percent of them reached the requisite level in reading.  But, of those same boys, only 62 percent managed to do the same in this year’s Key Stage 3 tests.  In other words, the reading performance of the boys who took Key Stage 3 this year has fallen by 20 points since 2005.

How will these boys perform in their GCSEs, in a couple of years time?  If the downwards trend continues, we can’t expect much from them.  And that can only have negative repercussions for their personal development.