What happens when a resistible force collides with a moveable object?
Such is the nature of the imminent battle between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak for the keys to No. 10. Given the underwhelming appeal of both men and the extent of public disillusionment with politics in general, it is hardly likely to be a vintage clash.
But with expectations for him and his party set so low, just by taking the initiative Sunak may cause some voters to reassess him. It now seems clear that a 4 July election has been the plan for quite some time and the PM’s repeated undertakings that polling day would come ‘in the second half of the year’, while technically being met under this timetable, was designed to lay a false trail towards autumn.
If the aim was to catch opposition parties on the hop, there is every sign that this has been achieved. Labour may have been saying it was ready for an election whenever it came, but the truth is that the party high-ups were preparing for a November contest. Meanwhile Nigel Farage and Reform have been put under intense time pressure to gear up for the rigours of a campaign, or in Farage’s case possibly decide that discretion is the better part of valour.
The biggest reason for going early is that Tory strategists simply did not expect to see a tightening of polls until the onset of campaign conditions. On the contrary, it was felt that the downside risk of further defections and infighting made going long the worse option. Some Tory insiders point to the famous Tony Blair maxim that, between elections, voters focus on the shortcomings of governments but during elections they ask about an opposition’s fitness for power.
And it is on this score that the Tories have a glimmer of hope. An Ipsos poll in April caused a flurry of excitement in Conservative HQ when it found that on four key metrics Starmer’s Labour fares worse than Ed Miliband’s did in the run-up to the 2015 election.
On keeping its promises, understanding the problems facing Britain, having a good team of leaders and overall fitness to govern, the poll showed Starmer’s operation scoring below the numbers Miliband’s losing team registered a decade ago. Of course, the poll also showed that current Tory ratings on all these measures were vastly worse than back then too. But it still made the point that Labour’s giant poll lead was mainly built on the Tory vote being on strike rather than the opposition having convinced the country of its own merits.
At the Commons despatch box today in answer to a question from SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, Sunak framed the looming election as being a straight choice between him and Starmer. This was a message he reinforced on the steps of Downing Street, telling voters they must choose whether to ‘build on the progress we have made or risk going back to square one with no plan and no certainty’.
The progress he referred to – presumably mainly on economic matters – is a slender basis for inviting the British public to reward the Tories with yet another term in office, to put it mildly. But a Labour party featuring Angela Rayner, David Lammy and Anneliese Dodds in its top team presents a target-rich environment as far as negative campaigning is concerned.
Starmer too should prepare himself for some pretty rough stuff given his long history of political flip-flopping. And do not be surprised if the ground Labour has given in recent weeks to the Israel-Palestine conflict turns into a big negative in the eyes of socially conservative voters.
Always keep a-hold of nurse for fear of finding something worse, advised Hilaire Belloc. If polling day dawns with that rather spirit-sapping thought in the forefront of the minds of ‘Middle England’ then the moveable object may yet end up faring rather better against the resistible force than ever we expected.
Watch Cindy Yu and Andrew Neil discuss the election announcement on The View from 22:
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