Any other business: Why Osborne is the new Chamberlain and bond yields say more than forecasts

I admire the Chancellor for his clarity of mind and his coolness under fire, but I don’t believe a word of his forecasts.

I didn’t even believe the forecasts he read out on Tuesday from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, and I’ll hazard a guess that the Chancellor wasn’t really putting much faith in them either. The key predictions of 0.9 per cent growth this year and 0.7 per cent next year, and all the borrowing numbers that flow from them, depend, he was careful to point out, on whether the eurozone finds a way through the current crisis: ‘If they don’t then the OBR warn that there could be a much worse outcome for Britain.’

And — though he didn’t say all this — they also depend on what happens to energy and food commodity prices, on whether we have another icy winter, on what happens next in the Middle East, and on whether we’re heading into another full-blown ­credit crunch.