Any Tory rebellion on social care is unlikely to be very big this evening when the Commons votes on a resolution introducing it. There are a number of reasons for this, not least that voting against a money resolution, particularly one on an issue that is as big as a budget, is a much bigger deal than rebelling on normal legislation. Then there’s the prospect of a reshuffle, with everyone in Westminster busily trying to read runes about whether Boris Johnson will move around his front bench tomorrow. If it doesn’t happen, disappointed MPs are hardly going to complain in public that they’d supported the policy in the hope of career glory.
If the NHS won’t willingly stop spending money, and the new care policy requires that money after three years, what’s going to happen?
Ministers have also been keen to tell would-be rebels that this vote isn’t the end of the matter and that they are open to improving the policy.
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