Another by-election nightmare looms for Brown

The death of John MacDougall, Labour MP for Glenrothes since 2001, will trigger yet another nightmare for Gordon Brown. No other word will do. Glenrothes in Fife is on the PM’s very doorstep and – after Glasgow East – looks distinctly vulnerable. In the 2005 general election, Mr MacDougall polled 19,395 votes, well ahead of the SNP’s John Beare on 8,731. But Labour’s majority of 10,664 accounted for only 28.5 per cent of the vote. In Glasgow East, Labour’s 2005 majority was larger in absolute terms – 13,507 – but accounted for more than 43 per cent of the turnout.

In other words, Glenrothes looks like an even juicier target for the SNP: if Alex Salmond’s party could win in Glasgow East, this should be, frankly, a doddle. Expect a bonanza of by-election bribes from the Treasury in the weeks before the by-election. Will they make any difference? I doubt it.