Just over a month before election day, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) are in a commanding position. The latest polls give them over 40 per cent support – fully 16 points ahead of main rivals the Social Democrats (SPD). You might think they’d have little to worry about. However, Germany’s electoral system is so scattered with technical and arithmetical traps that they are not safe yet.
Five per cent is a magical figure in German politics. Like many of its other national institutions, the voting system was designed with the country’s previous sins in mind; it is essentially proportional representation, but to stifle the rise of extremists, a party must gain 5 per cent of the popular vote to be awarded any seats. That leads to strange happenings around this critical threshold.
The CDU’s want to keep power with current partners the Free Democrats (FDP), but they fear the FDP will fail to breach 5 per cent, leaving them without an ally on the right.
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