Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning, Andrew Bailey threw his support behind one of the more optimistic scenarios for a post-Covid economic recovery: that the UK will be back to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. The combination of the UK’s hugely successful vaccine rollout combined with increased levels of lockdown immunity – that is, the economic impact of restrictions ‘reducing as we all adapt’ – had the Governor of the Bank of England suggesting that we could see a full recovery by the end of the year (notably earlier than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Budget forecast of roughly the middle of next year). Bailey was sure to put this into perspective, however: ‘Let’s be realistic,’ he said, ‘it’s not more than getting back to where we were pre-Covid.’ In other words, what the UK economy has endured, and the scarring from such significant economic contraction, does not simply disappear by returning to 2019 levels.
Speaking about the potential risks to recovery, Bailey noted the heightened sense of uncertainty, both on the upside (if consumers decide to spend their lockdown savings) and the downside (if a variant of the virus proves difficult to control with our current vaccines).
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